sexta-feira, 27 de janeiro de 2012

A bola de neve começou a rolar outra vez?

Péssimas noticias no WSJ: a bola de neve parece começar a rolar...
Como é evidente, mostra as implicações sistémicas da situação do euro, e a inutilidade politica das politicas baseadas na ideia do "mostrar que somos capazes de nos portar bem e impor austeridade". E como o recentemente anunciado "ponto de viragem" da crise da dívida portuguesa (pelo ministro das finanças) provavelmente é "só fumaça", e pode mesmo vir a ser exactamente o contrário. Esperemos que não.
Borrowing costs for Portugal pushed to euro-era highs for the second consecutive day Friday, while the cost of insuring that debt also hit fresh records, as market participants increasingly considered what a Greek restructuring deal could mean for those holding Portuguese debt.
"Portugal is taking the hit because it's seen by investors as the country most likely to take a debt haircut after Greece," said Alessandro Giansanti, rates strategist at ING. "From an analysis of the cash bond prices, it appears that the market is implying a 40% face value haircut (for Portugal)."
Analysts at Evolution Securities pointed to a paper published by the German Kiel Institute for the World Economy on Greece, Portugal and Spain. "Unsurprisingly, it sees the situation in Greece as far worse than in the others, but also had great concerns over debt sustainability in Portugal, saying bondholders may have to face haircuts of up to 50%," said analysts Elisabeth Afseth and Brian Barry in a note.

No mesmo dia, no WSJ um artigo sobre a abertura do Guimaraes2012.

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