segunda-feira, 30 de janeiro de 2012

As nuvens estão a ficar ainda mais negras

Enquanto que os juros da divida portuguesa atingiam máximos históricos e começava mais uma cimeira em Bruxelas, é preocupante que no live blog do FT sobre a crise da eurozona, Portugal seja várias vezes citado pela negativa, e inclusivé sejam extensamente transcritas partes da análise da Capital Economics (bolds da transcrição original pelo FT):
  • Although the government in Portugal is not as indebted as it is in Greece, we think it is also likely to default before too long. Portugal’s existing bail-out package should ensure that is fully funded until the end of 2012. But with the 10-year government bond yield now above 16 per cent, it may have to seek a second rescue deal well before that deadline expires. With little chance of the debt burden being eased by strong growth – we expect GDP to contract sharply this year and next as fiscal austerity bites – a debt restructuring may be a quid pro quo for further official sector support.
  • Alternatively, EU policymakers may decide that Portugal needs more aid, but that it does not need a debt restructuring. In this case, though, Portugal may still decide to default of its own accord if the conditions attached to a second bail-out are too onerous.
  • What’s more, we also think uncompetitive Portugal (with a large current account deficit) may choose to leave EMU [European monetary union, otherwise known as the euro] at some point in 2013. Indeed, this outcome now forms part of our central scenario, in which we expect Greece to be first to leave EMU this year.
No WSJ o tom é semelhante:
  • Portugal where solvency, rather than merely liquidity, is seen by many to be at issue.

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