A experiencia sueca e o euro

Lars Calmfors, da Universidade de Estocolmo e  presidente do conselho de política fiscal da Suécia, recorda as lições da experiencia sueca depois da crise de 1991-93 em "What can Europe learn from Sweden? Four lessons for fiscal discipline". Recorde-se que nessa altura o deficit anual da Suécia chegou a 11%.

• The explanation of the strong fiscal performance is that the 1990s fiscal crisis forged a broad political consensus that Sweden should never again end up in a similar situation.
• There exist no formal enforcement or sanction procedures. The Swedish fiscal performance suggests that transparency and a high-quality economic policy debate might be more important for budget discipline than formally binding rules.
• The Swedish economy grew because of a large real exchange rate depreciation. In 1991-1993, relative unit labour costs fell by 20%. This was due mainly to a depreciation of the nominal exchange rate. The result was a boost to net exports.
• The exchange rate depreciation in the early 1990s kick-started the economy, greatly facilitating the fiscal consolidation. But there was also a long-term rise in the growth rate.

As conclusões não dão muitas esperanças a uma zona euro sem uma politica fiscal única, ou seja, sem formas mais avançadas de federalismo. Surpreendentemente, os paises da UE começam a descobrir que em situações de crise e sem expansões continuadas da economia, a moeda comum na realidade pode ser um grave obstáculo à flexibilidade fiscal necessária para cada país resolver os seus problemas. Portugal não é grande problema para o Euro, mas o Euro é um problema sério para Portugal - aliás a causa directa do subito agravamento da situação financeira portuguesa. Não admira que a Suécia continua, e queira continuar, fora da zona Euro:

• Sweden shows that a deep fiscal crisis can forge a political consensus on the need for budget discipline and trigger comprehensive reforms of the fiscal framework. This may provide cause for some optimism regarding the Eurozone. But the Swedish experiences also suggest that transparency and a high-quality policy debate may be more important for fiscal discipline than the German-type binding rules and automatic correction mechanisms that the Eurozone seems now to be heading for. Most importantly, Sweden illustrates the importance of swift real exchange rate depreciation for fiscal consolidation. Without it, fiscal retrenchment is bound to hurt growth and the consolidation process to be long and painful. In this sense, the Swedish experiences do not offer any consolation for the crisis countries in the EUrozone, which with the common currency have no instrument for a real exchange rate depreciation. 

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