Grexit or UExit?

Apesar de algo equivoco, o recente editorial do FT sobre a crise europeia e da Grécia, Euro’s last turn before the Grexit, tem alguns pontos relevantes:

• Only in the context of a euro-wide relaxation of budget targets – which has become a live possibility in remarkably little time – can a modification of Athens’ programme be envisaged. Even that, however, is unlikely to gain strong political backing from Greeks, and may in any case come too late.
• If the common currency disintegrates, it will be because monetary union and national responsibility for banks are an unsustainable combination. Policy makers understand this now.
• If the eurozone blanched at pushing Greece out the door – and despite the tough talk, many leaders will hesitate – the only way it could avoid it would be by saving Greece’s banking system from collapse even if the sovereign defaulted.

Entretanto, James Galbraith (da UT at Austin) comentava numa interessante entrevista:

• the pretense had to be given to the German electorate that this was assistance to Greece in return for Greek sacrifices. The only thing that was real about that was the sacrifices. Those were palpable, they provided a justification for the policy, but there was no assistance to Greece associated with this.

Mais do que a incapacidade grega para implementar as reformas (apesar de tudo, foram feitos passos enormes de austeridade pelos gregos), é a incapacidade da UE em propor políticas razoáveis à Grecia (e outros!) que se está a revelar desastrosa. Cinco anos de programa e o desastre parece não ter fim. Quem se pode admirar dos gregos estarem fartos da incapacidade de Bruxelas e de Berlim?
Este parece ser um momento de potencial viragem: ou o colapso do euro (e da UE) ou alguém capaz de reconhecer que é o momento da mutualização da divida e das políticas fiscais comuns, com programas de coesão para a periferia. Um Europa federal. (Tal como a Alemanha federal ... ).

(Atualização, 21 de maio, editorial do The Economist, onde também se fala de "Eirexit, Porxit, Spaxit and Ixit":

• The Greek election is in effect a referendum on whether the country will stay in the euro. It is not completely without hope. A new Greek coalition which vowed to stick to the rescue deal would in fact gain some help from the rest of Europe. At the same time, with the promise of a common banking backstop and some form of Eurobonds, the euro would at last start to look as if it could survive and the dangers of contagion would fall away.
• The financial re-engineering of Europe is a prerequisite for the euro to survive. Greece is bringing forward that moment of truth. And yet politicians, particularly in Germany, have still to accept the logic, let alone explain it to voters. The prospect of a Greek exit means they must begin to do so—and fast.)

(Itálicos da nossa responsabilidade)